Most independent filmmakers do not research and utilize realistic sales projections when developing their Business Plan, or worse, they do not use sales projections at all. This is a huge mistake. Sales projections for your film project are absolutely necessary so you can properly budget your project, raise the necessary financing, and ensure your chances of paying your investors back.
When you are developing a set of projections, the following should be considered:
- Develop a set of projections starting with detailed revenue. It is important to have a clear idea of where the movie will be released and how it will be released. The type of release will greatly impact the revenue you could receive. You should have a good idea of what you can sell your movie for before you develop your budget.
- Make sure your production budget is solid and based on the final shooting script. These numbers can change, but it is important that you know they have changed, and why. You should be constantly updating your budget throughout the film project.
- Do not guess. You should always make every effort to obtain good, hard numbers. Have other producers located in the area you are planning to film take a look at your budget.
- When developing your projections, be sure you to include all of the available distribution channel
- US Theatrical
- US Broadcast
- US Home Video
- Foreign (DVD and other rights
- Online streaming, download and Film websites
Keep in mind there are many variables which will determine the price distributors will pay for your film at any given time (including, but not limited to: market trends, comparables, genre, subject matter, actors, producers, or directors involved in the project, if it did well at festivals, commercial viability, etc).
Include distribution costs you expect to incur. These will vary with the level of revenue included in the projections and will be different for each distribution channel. You will also need to develop a cash flow projection, a cash break even, and a net profit break even analysis. These can be included in your business plan.
Using our Film Financial Projections Template has never been easier and we are proud to offer filmmakers FOUR Different Options for Comparable Films and Movie Sales Projections:
- DIY - all of our Toolkits and Bundles include our Film Financial Projections template. You find movies similar to yours, plug in the numbers and our spreadsheet does the work for you
- Indie Film Database - Add our proprietary Indie Film Database and do your own projections in a fraction of the time! Instead of looking up film by film, and consulting multiple websites and pages to find the numbers you need, just use simple filters on our DB to find all the numbers you need.
- Professional Sales Projections Done FOR You with 10 Films - FilmProposals now partners with Nash Info Services, the movie data gurus behind the-numbers.com (who created our Indie Film Database), to do professional movie projections based on 10 comparable films for you.
- Professional Sales Projections Done FOR You with 20 Films - New in 2022! Professional Movie Sales Projections & Investor ROI Scenarios, with your Financial Analysis using 20 Comparable Films. Work directly with the the experts at NIS to select your ideal 20 comparable films from their full list of 20,000+ films.
Read More: Comparable Films and Movie Sales Projections
Author: Jack Heape, Originally Published March 4, 2009
About the Author
Jack Heape is a native of Columbia, South Carolina. He attended school in North Carolina, where he was active in the arts, performing in numerous theater, dance, and TV productions. Jack received his BS degree in Economics from Excelsior College, and graduated with honors with a Masters in Project Management from the University of Arkansas. After graduation from school, Jack entered the US Navy, where he served in various capacities, in particularly as Supply Officer on various nuclear submarines stationed in Charleston, SC. Currently the Executive Director of the Carolina Film Factory, a 501c(3) corporation, Jack is also the general partner for Hobo Productions, LLC. Jack has over 20 years of experience in Marketing, Advertising, and Public Relations. Directing Highlights Dollar Girl (2007) Six Degrees of Desperation (2007) Saving Maggie (2008) In production Producer Highlights Final Reckoning (2006) Dollar Girl (2007) Six Degrees of Desperation (2007) Saving Maggie (2008) E-motion (2009) Preproduction Ruby (2009) Preproduction
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New in 2022! Level up your Comparable Films/ Sales Projections Analysis using 20 Comparable Films. With our Plus Bundles, you work directly with the expert analysts at Nash Info Services to select your ideal 20 comparable films from their full list of 20,000+ films. You get all the same reports as our standard sales projections PLUS expert advice on choosing your Comparable Films and an exponentially larger selection of films from which to choose.
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